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Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
H. Kadesh 83'
Y. En Nesyri 35'
F. Sakala 55'
2/13/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 22King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC50%
×Draw24%
Al-Fayha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
1.68
Al-Fayha
1.13

Al-Ittihad FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.57
Al-Fayha
0.89

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.37
Al-Fayha
1.79

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC-0.13scores less
Al-Fayha+0.11scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
74%
Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fayha
76%
Draw or Al-Fayha
50%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
27%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
81%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
50%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
24%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
68%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
31%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
66%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 + Al-Fayha defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

Al-Fayha attack 0.89 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
50%
level
24%
Al-Fayha scores more
26%

Al-Ittihad FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. KadeshAl-Ittihad FCAl-Ittihad FC · D
7.9

Match Events

35'
Y. En Nesyri↳ M. Doumbia
55'
F. Sakala↳ Y. Benzia
59'
M. Diaby← A. Sharahili
59'
A. Al Nashri← A. Al Bishi
70'
S. Ganvoula← S. Dahal
73'
Alfa Semedo
79'
A. Al Ghamdi← Roger
83'
H. Kadesh
85'
Mikel Villanueva
88'
N. Al Harthi← R. Kaabi
88'
R. Enad← M. Al Baqawi

Possession

63%Al-Ittihad

Shots

15Al-Ittihad

Pass accuracy

53%Al-Ittihad

Statistics

Al-IttihadAl-Fayha
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots11
0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.66
7Corners1
13Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target3
7Off Target5
4Blocked3
7Inside Box7
8Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
573Total Passes346
511Accurate Passes277
89%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.58Goals Prevented-0.58
Discipline
13Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 2-1 in Pro League on February 13, 2026.

Goals: Y. En Nesyri (35'), F. Sakala (55'), H. Kadesh (83').

Al-Ittihad FC controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.