Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Al-Ittihad FC50%
Al-Fayha26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Ittihad FC creates 49% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al-Ittihad FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches
Al-Fayha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 + Al-Fayha defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68
Al-Fayha attack 0.89 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Al-Ittihad FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Al-Nassr
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Ittihad FC
Al Taawon
Al-Ettifaq
NEOM
Al-HazmAl-Fayha
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Fateh
Al Shabab
Al Kholood
Al Riyadh
Damac
Al Okhdood
Al NajmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fayha on Friday, 29 March 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Al-Ittihad FC 3 – 1 Al-Fayha
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 3-1 in Pro League on March 29, 2024.
Goals: A. Sabiri (25' pen), A. Hamed-Allah (30'), Ahmed Al Ghamdi (45+2'), Marwan Al Sahafi (90+4').
Al-Ittihad FC controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 6.
The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.