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Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Saleh Al Shehri 42'
10/31/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 9King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC31%
×Draw26%
Al-Ahli Jeddah43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
1.21
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.47

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.57
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.56

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.37
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.85

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC-0.13scores less
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
57%
Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah
74%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
69%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
13%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
70%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
34%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
12%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
77%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
43%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
42%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.56 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
31%
level
26%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
43%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Abdulelah Al AmriAl-Ittihad FCAl-Ittihad FC · D
8.2

Match Events

42'
Saleh Al Shehri↳ M. Diaby
50'
Abdulelah Al-Amri
62'
Franck KessiéGoal cancelled
64'
Ali Al-Asmari
69'
Ziyad Al Johani← Ali Al Asmari
73'
Hassan Kadish← Saleh Al Shehri
82'
Roberto Firmino← Saad Yaslam
86'
Abdulrahman Al Obud← S. Bergwijn
90+4'
Franck Kessié
90+2'
Roger Ibañez
90+14'
Abdulaziz Al Bishi← M. Diaby
90+9'
Sumayhan Al Nabit← Gabri Veiga

Possession

50%Al-Ittihad

Shots

12Al-Ittihad

Pass accuracy

50%Al-Ittihad

Statistics

Al-IttihadAl-Ahli
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots10
7Corners6
14Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target3
4Off Target4
4Blocked3
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
358Total Passes367
288Accurate Passes289
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides5

Pro League: Al-Ittihad FC 1–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 in Pro League on October 31, 2024.

Goals: Saleh Al Shehri (42').

Al-Ittihad FC controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.