Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al-Ittihad FC: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Ittihad FC

F. Al Buraikan 84'

R. Mahrez 59'

I. Toney 23'

Fabinho 51' (pen)

3/6/2026

Pro League · Round 25King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah60%

×Draw20%

Al-Ittihad FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl-Ittihad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.17

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.20

Al-Ittihad FC

1.17

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

2.79

creates per match

1.62

0.71

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.79

Al-Ittihad FC

1.62

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.71

Al-Ittihad FC

1.60

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.13scores more

Al-Ittihad FC-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

81%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ittihad FC

80%

Draw or Al-Ittihad FC

40%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

38%

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

89%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

64%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

37%

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

69%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

33%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

76%

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.71 · 12 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.60 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.79 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.62 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

60%

level

20%

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

19%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Galeno

Al-Ahli Jeddah · F

8.3

Match Events

20'

Wenderson Galeno

23'

I. Toney↳ Galeno

32'

Fabinho

40'

Mahamadou Doumbia

49'

Steven BergwijnPenalty confirmed

51'

FabinhoPenalty

59'

R. Mahrez↳ Galeno

67'

F. Al Buraikan← Z. Al Johani

75'

A. Al Oboud← A. Sharahili

75'

A. Al Julaydan← M. Diaby

84'

F. Al Buraikan

86'

E. Al Muwallad← R. Mahrez

86'

A. Al Bishi← H. Aouar

88'

Danilo Pereira

90+7'

Edouard Mendy

90+3'

M. Sulaiman← Z. Al Hawsawi

90+4'

S. Abu Al Shamat← I. Toney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl-Ittihad

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots8

2.05Expected Goals (xG)1.07

2Corners4

15Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target2

5Off Target1

2Blocked5

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

256Total Passes297

209Accurate Passes237

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15

Discipline

15Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1