Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4–1 Al-Hazm: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Al-Hazm

5/11/2024

Pro League · Round 31Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC66%

×Draw19%

Al-Hazm15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Hazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.91

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.16

Al-Hazm

0.91

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 137% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 79 away

2.45

creates per match

0.94

0.88

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.45

Al-Hazm

0.94

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.88

Al-Hazm

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al-Hazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

85%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Hazm

81%

Draw or Al-Hazm

34%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

42%

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

88%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

63%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

36%

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

60%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

23%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

82%

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.86 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.16

Al-Hazm attack 0.94 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

66%

level

19%

Al-Hazm scores more

15%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff