Al-Hazm 0–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al-Hazm

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

5/2/2026

Pro League · Round 31Al-Hazem Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Al-Hazm19%

×Draw21%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-HazmExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.08

Al-Hazm

1.08

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.08

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 126 away

1.19

creates per match

2.29

1.86

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al-Hazm

1.19

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.29

allows per match

Al-Hazm

1.86

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw

40%

Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

79%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

81%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

7%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

66%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

29%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

10%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

87%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

61%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

24%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.86 · 79 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.19 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Hazm scores more

19%

level

21%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

60%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff