Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al-Fayha: Result & Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Fayha

10/18/2024

Pro League · Round 7Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC63%

×Draw21%

Al-Fayha16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Fayha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.92

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.04

Al-Fayha

0.92

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 122% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

2.45

creates per match

0.96

0.88

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.45

Al-Fayha

0.96

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.88

Al-Fayha

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al-Fayha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

84%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha

79%

Draw or Al-Fayha

37%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

39%

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

87%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

60%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

33%

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

60%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

23%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

80%

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Al-Fayha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al-Fayha attack 0.96 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

63%

level

21%

Al-Fayha scores more

16%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff