Al-Fayha 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al-Fayha

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

12/29/2023

Pro League · Round 19Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Fayha23%

×Draw24%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FayhaExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.76

Al-Fayha

1.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.76

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 126 away

1.14

creates per match

2.29

1.23

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al-Fayha

1.14

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.29

allows per match

Al-Fayha

1.23

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw

46%

Al-Fayha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

76%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

77%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

8%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

65%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

29%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

9%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

52%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

30%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.14 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al-Fayha defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Fayha scores more

23%

level

24%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

54%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff