Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2/2/2026

Pro League · Round 20Kingdom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC53%

×Draw22%

Al-Ahli Jeddah25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.26

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.93

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.26

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

2.45

creates per match

1.65

0.88

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.45

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.65

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.88

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

75%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah

78%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

47%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

30%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

57%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

30%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

72%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

36%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

68%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.93

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

53%

level

22%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

25%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff