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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddahadvanced
Salem Al Dawsari 42'
Feras Al Brikan 90+7'
I. Toney 27'
Roberto Firmino 9'
4/29/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Semi-finalsAl Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC51%
×Draw24%
Al-Ahli Jeddah26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.76
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.18

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 31 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.23
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.58

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.78
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
74%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah
76%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
49%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
28%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
83%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
52%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
26%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
69%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
33%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
67%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.76

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.58 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
51%
level
24%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
26%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. MahrezAl-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah · M
8.6

Match Events

1'
Ezgjan Alioski
6'
Ali Majrashi
9'
Roberto Firmino↳ Galeno
27'
I. Toney↳ R. Mahrez
42'
Salem Al Dawsari
45+9'
Kalidou Koulibaly
45+6'
Merih Demiral
59'
Kalidou Koulibaly
59'
Kalidou Koulibaly
59'
Kaio César← Marcos Leonardo
59'
Hamad Al Yami← Yasir Al Shahrani
68'
Hassan Al Tambakti← Kaio César
78'
Aleksandar Mitrović
80'
Salem Al-Dawsari
83'
Riyad MahrezPenalty confirmed
84'
Hamad Al Yami
86'
Franck KessiéMissed penalty
87'
Rúben Neves
88'
Mohammed Sulaiman← Ali Majrashi
90+10'
Bono
90+10'
Wenderson Galeno
90+11'
Gabri Veiga← Galeno
90+6'
Feras Al Brikan← Roberto Firmino
90+7'
Feras Al Brikan

Possession

54%Al-Hilal

Shots

4Al-Hilal

Pass accuracy

52%Al-Hilal

Statistics

Al-HilalAl-Ahli
Overview
54%Possession46%
4Total Shots21
1Corners7
21Fouls11
Shots
4Total Shots21
1On Target6
2Off Target11
1Blocked4
3Inside Box18
1Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
286Total Passes239
207Accurate Passes157
72%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
21Fouls11
7Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 in AFC Champions League on April 29, 2025.

Goals: Roberto Firmino (9'), I. Toney (27'), Salem Al Dawsari (42'), Feras Al Brikan (90+7').

Al-Hilal Saudi FC controlled possession (54%) and registered 4 shots to 21.

The match was played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Jeddah.