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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
CANC
12:00
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
4/26/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 27Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan22%
×Draw27%
Al Hilal Omdurman51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.85
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.43

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 68% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.07
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.88

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.98
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.63

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
49%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Al Hilal Omdurman
73%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
78%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
7%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
57%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
21%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
5%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
76%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
42%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
31%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.07 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.85

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.88 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
22%
level
27%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
51%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Match Preview

Al Hilal Port Sudan face Al Hilal Omdurman on April 26, 2023 in this Sudani Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Al Hilal Port Sudan host Al Hilal Omdurman at Port Sudan Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.