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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
2 – 0
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
8/2/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 25Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman60%
×Draw23%
Al Hilal Port Sudan17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.77
Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.80

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 121% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.21

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.02

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
83%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Hilal Port Sudan
77%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
40%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
35%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
83%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
53%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
26%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
55%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
19%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
78%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
60%
level
23%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
17%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Hilal Port Sudan 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on August 2, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.