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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Hilal Al Manaqil — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
0 – 0
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1/28/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan39%
×Draw35%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.91
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
0.68

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.06
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
0.75

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.61
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
0.75

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Al Hilal Al Manaqil+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Al Hilal Al Manaqil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
74%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Al Hilal Al Manaqil
65%
Draw or Al Hilal Al Manaqil
61%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
14%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
60%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
23%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
6%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1+ goals
49%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 2+ goals
15%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
60%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Al Hilal Al Manaqil away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.06 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 0.75 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
39%
level
35%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil scores more
26%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Port Sudan 0–0 Al Hilal Al Manaqil

Al Hilal Port Sudan and Al Hilal Al Manaqil drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Al-Merghani Kassala in Kassala.