Al Hilal Al Manaqil 0–1 Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

FT

0 – 1

Al Hilal Port Sudan

2/19/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 10Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hilal Al Manaqil34%

×Draw31%

Al Hilal Port Sudan35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal Al ManaqilExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Port Sudan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.00

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

0.98

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

1.25

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.00

allows per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

1.00

Al Hilal Port Sudan

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Al Manaqil+0.00on par

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Al Manaqil ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Hilal Al Manaqil or draw

65%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil or Al Hilal Port Sudan

69%

Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan

66%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Al Manaqil wins by 2+

13%

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1+ goals

62%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 2+ goals

26%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3+ goals

8%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals

63%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals

26%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Al Manaqil (draw refunded)

49%

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 1.25 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Hilal Al Manaqil scores more

34%

level

31%

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more

35%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff