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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
1 – 1
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
12/9/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 13Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan51%
×Draw32%
Al Fallah17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.16
Al Fallah
0.54

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 115% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.00
Al Fallah
0.45

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.62
Al Fallah
1.32

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
83%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Al Fallah
68%
Draw or Al Fallah
49%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
23%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
69%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
32%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
11%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
42%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
10%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
75%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Al Fallah defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Fallah attack 0.45 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
51%
level
32%
Al Fallah scores more
17%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Fallah

Al Hilal Port Sudan and Al Fallah drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on December 9, 2022.

The match was played at Port Sudan Stadium in Port Sudan.