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Al Fallah vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
5/20/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Group - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Fallah28%
×Draw32%
Al Hilal Port Sudan40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
0.82
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.03

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
0.75
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.00

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.06
Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.90

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
60%
Al Fallah or Al Hilal Port Sudan
68%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
72%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
9%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
56%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
20%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
5%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
64%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
28%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
42%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.75 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Al Fallah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Fallah scores more
28%
level
32%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
40%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Fallah 0–3 Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Hilal Port Sudan beat Al Fallah 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on May 20, 2026.