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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
7/10/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 3Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman62%
×Draw23%
Al Ahli Wad Medani14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.72
Al Ahli Wad Medani
0.68

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 153% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.33
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.19

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.17
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.10

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
86%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Ahli Wad Medani
77%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
38%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
36%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
82%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
51%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
25%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
49%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
15%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
81%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.33 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.19 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
62%
level
23%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
14%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Omdurman 0–0 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Al Hilal Omdurman and Al Ahli Wad Medani drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Al-Merghani Kassala in Kassala.