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Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
FT
0 – 0
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
7/29/2016Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 22Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani34%
×Draw28%
Al Hilal Omdurman38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.15
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.69
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.40

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.07
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.60

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw
62%
Al Ahli Wad Medani or Al Hilal Omdurman
72%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
66%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
14%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
68%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
32%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
11%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
71%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
35%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
47%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.69 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.40 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
34%
level
28%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
38%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Wad Medani 0–0 Al Hilal Omdurman

Al Ahli Wad Medani and Al Hilal Omdurman drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 29, 2016.

The match was played at Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani)).