Al Hilal Omdurman 5–2 Al-Ahli Atbara

Al Hilal Omdurman

FT

5 – 2

Al-Ahli Atbara

2/14/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 20Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman83%

×Draw12%

Al-Ahli Atbara5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal OmdurmanExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.45

Al Hilal Omdurman

2.60

Al-Ahli Atbara

0.45

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 478% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 18 away

2.53

creates per match

0.50

0.39

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

2.53

Al-Ahli Atbara

0.50

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.39

Al-Ahli Atbara

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw

95%

Al Hilal Omdurman or Al-Ahli Atbara

88%

Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara

17%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

62%

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

92%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

73%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

47%

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals

36%

Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals

8%

Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

95%

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.60

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

83%

level

12%

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more

5%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff