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Al-Ahli Atbara vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
FT
2 – 2
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
10/9/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara18%
×Draw23%
Al Hilal Omdurman59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Atbara
0.88
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.80

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.13
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.88

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.73
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.63

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw
41%
Al-Ahli Atbara or Al Hilal Omdurman
77%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
82%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
6%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
59%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
22%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
6%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
83%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
54%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
23%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.88 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
18%
level
23%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
59%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Atbara vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Al-Ahli Atbara and Al Hilal Omdurman drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.