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Al Hilal Karima vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Karima
Al Hilal Karima
FT
2 – 1
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
1/30/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Hilal Karima44%
×Draw27%
Al Fallah30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Karima
1.41
Al Fallah
1.11

Al Hilal Karima creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Karima
1.40
Al Fallah
0.42

allows per match

Al Hilal Karima
1.80
Al Fallah
1.42

finishing

Al Hilal Karima+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Karima ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Hilal Karima or draw
70%
Al Hilal Karima or Al Fallah
73%
Draw or Al Fallah
56%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Karima wins by 2+
21%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Hilal Karima 1+ goals
76%
Al Hilal Karima 2+ goals
41%
Al Hilal Karima 3+ goals
17%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
67%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
30%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Karima (draw refunded)
60%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Karima at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Karima attack 1.40 + Al Fallah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Fallah attack 0.42 + Al Hilal Karima defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Hilal Karima scores more
44%
level
27%
Al Fallah scores more
30%

Al Hilal Karima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Hilal Karima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Karima vs Al Fallah

Al Hilal Karima beat Al Fallah 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 30, 2026.