Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Fallah vs Al Hilal Karima — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Hilal Karima
Al Hilal Karima
1/11/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Fallah41%
×Draw30%
Al Hilal Karima29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
1.14
Al Hilal Karima
0.90

Al Fallah creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
0.67
Al Hilal Karima
0.80

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.00
Al Hilal Karima
1.60

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Al Hilal Karima+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al Hilal Karima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
71%
Al Fallah or Al Hilal Karima
70%
Draw or Al Hilal Karima
59%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
17%
Al Hilal Karima wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
68%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
32%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
11%
Al Hilal Karima 1+ goals
59%
Al Hilal Karima 2+ goals
23%
Al Hilal Karima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
59%
Al Hilal Karima (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al Hilal Karima away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.67 + Al Hilal Karima defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al Hilal Karima attack 0.80 + Al Fallah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Fallah scores more
41%
level
30%
Al Hilal Karima scores more
29%

Al Fallah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Fallah 2 – 0 Al Hilal Karima

Al Fallah beat Al Hilal Karima 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 11, 2026.