Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hilal Kadougli vs Al-Ahli Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
FT
0 – 0
Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
10/23/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Murta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Hilal Kadougli62%
×Draw23%
Al-Ahli Atbara16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Kadougli
1.81
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.79

Al Hilal Kadougli creates 129% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 18 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Kadougli
0.95
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.50

allows per match

Al Hilal Kadougli
1.07
Al-Ahli Atbara
2.67

finishing

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Kadougli ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Hilal Kadougli or draw
84%
Al Hilal Kadougli or Al-Ahli Atbara
77%
Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara
38%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
36%
Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
84%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
54%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
27%
Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
55%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
19%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
79%
Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Kadougli at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.95 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
62%
level
23%
Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
16%

Al Hilal Kadougli at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Hilal Kadougli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Kadougli vs Al-Ahli Atbara

Al Hilal Kadougli and Al-Ahli Atbara drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 23, 2019.

The match was played at Murta Stadium in Kadougli.