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Al-Ahli Atbara vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
FT
3 – 0
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
9/16/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 27Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara39%
×Draw26%
Al Hilal Kadougli35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.34
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.13
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.79

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.73
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw
65%
Al-Ahli Atbara or Al Hilal Kadougli
74%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
61%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
18%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
74%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
39%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
15%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
72%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
36%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
53%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
39%
level
26%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
35%

Al-Ahli Atbara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ahli Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Ahli Atbara 3–0 Al Hilal Kadougli

Al-Ahli Atbara beat Al Hilal Kadougli 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.