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Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
8/31/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 3Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al-Hazm47%
×Draw26%
Al-Faisaly FC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hazm
1.53
Al-Faisaly FC
1.11

Al-Hazm creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al-Hazm
1.89
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al-Hazm
0.75
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw
72%
Al-Hazm or Al-Faisaly FC
74%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
53%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+
24%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals
78%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
45%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
20%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
67%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
30%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.89 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al-Hazm defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Hazm scores more
47%
level
26%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
28%

Al-Hazm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Hazm 1–0 Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Hazm beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 in Division 1 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.