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Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm — Division 1 2018

Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
2/4/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC34%
×Draw26%
Al-Hazm40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Faisaly FC
1.31
Al-Hazm
1.44

Al-Hazm creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.54
Al-Hazm
1.68

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.21
Al-Hazm
1.09

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw
60%
Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Hazm
74%
Draw or Al-Hazm
66%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
15%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
73%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
38%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
14%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
76%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
42%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
46%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.09 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.54 + Al-Hazm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al-Hazm attack 1.68 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more
34%
level
26%
Al-Hazm scores more
40%

Al-Hazm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm

Al-Hazm beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 in Division 1 on February 4, 2025.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.