Al-Hazm 2–3 Al Baten: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Hazm

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Al Baten

N. Zerhouni 79'

O. John 48'

Yousef Fawaz 90', 87'

Fábio Abreu 65'

5/27/2022

Pro League · Round 28Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Hazm42%

×Draw24%

Al Baten34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-HazmExpected goals in this matchAl Baten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.41

Al-Hazm

1.59

Al Baten

1.41

Al-Hazm creates 13% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 58 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

1.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al-Hazm

1.19

Al Baten

0.93

allows per match

Al-Hazm

1.88

Al Baten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al Baten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw

66%

Al-Hazm or Al Baten

76%

Draw or Al Baten

58%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

21%

Al Baten wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

80%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

47%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

21%

Al Baten 1+ goals

76%

Al Baten 2+ goals

41%

Al Baten 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

55%

Al Baten (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.88 · 78 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.19 + Al Baten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al Baten attack 0.93 + Al-Hazm defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Hazm scores more

42%

level

24%

Al Baten scores more

34%

Al-Hazm at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

87

Yousef Fawaz

Al Baten · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

Abdurahman Al-DakheelCard upgrade

4'

Abdurahman Al-Dakheel

18'

Zakaria Al-Sudani

34'

Renato Chaves

48'

O. John↳ Thaar Al-Otaibi

51'

Ola JohnGoal confirmed

57'

Fabio AbreuPenalty awarded

61'

Neris

62'

Fabio Abreu

64'

Saqr Al-Enazi← Mohammed Naji

65'

Fábio Abreu↳ Abdulaziz Al-Aryani

68'

Fabio AbreuGoal confirmed

79'

Yousef Fawaz← Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji

79'

N. Zerhouni↳ Ahmed Al-Najei

82'

Khaled Al-Barakah← Abdulelah Al Shammry

87'

Yousef Fawaz↳ Maurício Antônio

88'

Saud Zidan← O. John

90+7'

Maurício Antônio

90+3'

Abdulaziz Al-Alawi← Saqr Al-Enazi

90'

Yousef Fawaz↳ Zakaria Al-Sudani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HazmAl

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots15

1Corners6

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target7

4Off Target6

0Blocked2

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

274Total Passes357

232Accurate Passes306

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides5