Al Baten 1–0 Al-Hazm: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Baten

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Hazm

11/1/2018

Pro League · Round 8Al-Batin Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Baten44%

×Draw25%

Al-Hazm31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Hazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.25

Al Baten

1.55

Al-Hazm

1.25

Al Baten creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 77 away

1.23

creates per match

0.95

1.56

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Hazm

0.95

allows per match

Al Baten

1.56

Al-Hazm

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Hazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

69%

Al Baten or Al-Hazm

75%

Draw or Al-Hazm

56%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

22%

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

79%

Al Baten 2+ goals

46%

Al Baten 3+ goals

20%

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

71%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

36%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

59%

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Hazm defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al-Hazm attack 0.95 + Al Baten defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Baten scores more

44%

level

25%

Al-Hazm scores more

31%

Al Baten at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff