Al-Fateh 2–1 Al Okhdood: Result & Stats

Al-Fateh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Okhdood

S. Bendebka 85'

M. Batna 55' (pen)

N. Asiri 90'

2/23/2026

Pro League · Round 10Al Fateh club stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Fateh49%

×Draw24%

Al Okhdood26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FatehExpected goals in this matchAl Okhdood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.15

Al-Fateh

1.66

Al Okhdood

1.15

Al-Fateh creates 44% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

1.67

creates per match

0.76

1.53

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al-Fateh

1.67

Al Okhdood

0.76

allows per match

Al-Fateh

1.53

Al Okhdood

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al Okhdood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw

74%

Al-Fateh or Al Okhdood

76%

Draw or Al Okhdood

51%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+

26%

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals

81%

Al-Fateh 2+ goals

49%

Al-Fateh 3+ goals

23%

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

68%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

32%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)

65%

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 81 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.67 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al-Fateh defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Fateh scores more

49%

level

24%

Al Okhdood scores more

26%

Al-Fateh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

Samuel Portugal

Al Okhdood · G

8.7

Match Events

11'

24'

43'

45+2'

45+1'

46'

46'

N. Masoud← A. Al Anazi

46'

S. Bendebka← A. Al Fawaz

46'

S. Al Abbas← K. Al Lazam

47'

Mourad BatnaPenalty cancelled

53'

Fahad ZubaidiPenalty confirmed

54'

Koray Günter

55'

M. BatnaPenalty

59'

A. Al Hatila← Y. Neyou

59'

M. Abu Abd← M. Borrell

64'

Burak IncePenalty cancelled

73'

M. Saadane← A. Al Swealem

73'

S. Baattia← M. Al Sarnoukh

85'

90+3'

90+8'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-FatehAl

Overview

50%Possession50%

26Total Shots10

2.95Expected Goals (xG)0.49

7Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

26Total Shots10

11On Target3

10Off Target5

5Blocked2

14Inside Box5

12Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

332Total Passes328

278Accurate Passes269

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

2.45Goals Prevented2.45

Discipline

18Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2