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Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood — Pro League 2018

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
12/30/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 19Al Fateh Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Fateh48%
×Draw25%
Al Okhdood27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
1.62
Al Okhdood
1.14

Al-Fateh creates 42% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.59
Al Okhdood
0.76

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.52
Al Okhdood
1.65

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al Okhdood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
73%
Al-Fateh or Al Okhdood
75%
Draw or Al Okhdood
52%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
25%
Al Okhdood wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
80%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
48%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
22%
Al Okhdood 1+ goals
68%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
32%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
64%
Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 126 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.59 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
48%
level
25%
Al Okhdood scores more
27%

Al-Fateh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Fateh 0–0 Al Okhdood

Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood drew 0-0 in Pro League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Al-Hasa.