Al Fallah 1–0 Al Ahly Shendi: Result & Stats

Al Fallah

FT

1 – 0

Al Ahly Shendi

1/11/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 1Barber Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Fallah30%

×Draw38%

Al Ahly Shendi31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FallahExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly Shendi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

0.71

Al Fallah

0.69

Al Ahly Shendi

0.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

0.43

1.00

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Al Fallah

0.67

Al Ahly Shendi

0.43

allows per match

Al Fallah

1.00

Al Ahly Shendi

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al Ahly Shendi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–118%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw

69%

Al Fallah or Al Ahly Shendi

62%

Draw or Al Ahly Shendi

70%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+

9%

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals

50%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

15%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

3%

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals

51%

Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals

16%

Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

49%

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.67 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.43 + Al Fallah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 31%?"

Al Fallah scores more

30%

level

38%

Al Ahly Shendi scores more

31%

Al Ahly Shendi at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 31% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff