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Al Ahly Shendi vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
FT
3 – 2
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
2/29/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 23Shandi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi42%
×Draw34%
Al Fallah24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly Shendi
0.98
Al Fallah
0.67

Al Ahly Shendi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.63
Al Fallah
0.45

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.88
Al Fallah
1.32

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw
76%
Al Ahly Shendi or Al Fallah
66%
Draw or Al Fallah
58%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
16%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
62%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
26%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
8%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
49%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
15%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
63%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.63 + Al Fallah defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Fallah attack 0.45 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more
42%
level
34%
Al Fallah scores more
24%

Al Ahly Shendi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahly Shendi vs Al Fallah

Al Ahly Shendi beat Al Fallah 3-2 in Sudani Premier League on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Shandi Stadium in Shandi.