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Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2018

Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1/11/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 16Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC38%
×Draw25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Faisaly FC
1.46
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.63

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.28
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.41

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw
62%
Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah
75%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
62%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
18%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
77%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
43%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
18%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
77%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
43%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
50%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.50 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.63 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more
38%
level
25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
38%

Al-Faisaly FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Faisaly FC 2 – 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 2-2 in Pro League on January 11, 2022.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.