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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
8/13/2021Pro LeaguePro League · Round 1King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah53%
×Draw24%
Al-Faisaly FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.75
Al-Faisaly FC
1.08

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 62% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.97
Al-Faisaly FC
1.12

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.04
Al-Faisaly FC
1.53

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
77%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Faisaly FC
76%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
47%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
29%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
83%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
52%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
25%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
66%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
29%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
69%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.04 · 106 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.97 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
53%
level
24%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
23%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC drew 1-1 in Pro League on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.