Al-Ettifaq 3–0 Al Baten: Result & Stats

Al-Ettifaq

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Baten

Turki Mohammed Al Dhafiri 90+5' (OG)

Y. Niakaté 88' (pen)

Vitinho 66'

9/9/2022

Pro League · Round 3Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al-Ettifaq50%

×Draw24%

Al Baten26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-EttifaqExpected goals in this matchAl Baten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.17

Al-Ettifaq

1.70

Al Baten

1.17

Al-Ettifaq creates 45% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 59 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al Baten

0.95

allows per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al Baten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ettifaq ↓

Al Baten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Ettifaq or draw

74%

Al-Ettifaq or Al Baten

76%

Draw or Al Baten

50%

Winning margin

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+

27%

Al Baten wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals

82%

Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals

51%

Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals

24%

Al Baten 1+ goals

69%

Al Baten 2+ goals

33%

Al Baten 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)

65%

Al Baten (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ettifaq at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 125 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.40 + Al Baten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Al Baten attack 0.95 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Ettifaq scores more

50%

level

24%

Al Baten scores more

26%

Al-Ettifaq at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Vitinho

Al-Ettifaq · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

Nawaf Hazazi← Hamed Al Ghamdi

33'

Tariq Al Mutairi

45+4'

Abdullah Khateeb

45+4'

Abdullah KhateebCard upgrade

59'

Ibrahim Jamal← Maurício Antônio

64'

Marcel TisserandPenalty cancelled

66'

Vitinho↳ Nawaf Hazazi

71'

Saqr Al Enazi← Tariq Al Mutairi

72'

Ali Abdullah Hazzazi← Ibrahim Mahnashi

72'

Y. Niakaté← R. Quaison

77'

Abdulrhman← Mohammed Fraih Al Shammari

77'

Turki Mohammed Al Dhafiri← Othman Awad

85'

Youssouf NiakatePenalty confirmed

86'

Bader Alhwidy Alshammary

87'

Mohammed Naji

88'

Y. NiakatéPenalty

90+4'

Youssouf NiakateGoal cancelled

90+1'

Faisal Al Ghamdi← B. Özdemir

90+1'

Fahad Al Dossari← Ahmed Al Ghamdi

90+5'

Turki Mohammed Al DhafiriOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-EttifaqAl

Overview

72%Possession28%

16Total Shots3

10Corners1

8Fouls4

Shots

16Total Shots3

7On Target1

4Off Target2

5Blocked0

14Inside Box2

2Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

426Total Passes177

364Accurate Passes103

85%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls4

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1