Al Baten 3–2 Al-Ettifaq: Result & Stats

Al Baten

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Ettifaq

Y. El Jebli 82'

S. Al Abbas 78'

F. Abreu 16'

M. Al Kuwaykibi 56'

F. Kiss 50' (pen)

5/19/2021

Pro League · Round 28Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Baten35%

×Draw25%

Al-Ettifaq40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Ettifaq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.44

Al Baten

1.34

Al-Ettifaq

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 125 away

1.23

creates per match

1.32

1.56

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Ettifaq

1.32

allows per match

Al Baten

1.56

Al-Ettifaq

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Ettifaq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

60%

Al Baten or Al-Ettifaq

75%

Draw or Al-Ettifaq

65%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

16%

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

74%

Al Baten 2+ goals

39%

Al Baten 3+ goals

15%

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals

76%

Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals

42%

Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

47%

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Al-Ettifaq away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.32 + Al Baten defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Baten scores more

35%

level

25%

Al-Ettifaq scores more

40%

Al-Ettifaq at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Fabio Abreu

Al Baten · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

F. Zahim

16'

F. Abreu

46'

F. Zahim← S. Al Qumayzi

50'

F. KissPenalty

56'

M. Al Kuwaykibi

59'

K. Hyland← S. Al Abbas

72'

A. Al Shammary← A. Al Shammary

78'

S. Al Abbas↳ Y. El Jebli

78'

S. Doukara← N. Sliti

82'

Y. El Jebli↳ F. Abreu

84'

Z. Al Sudani

85'

K. Mets← H. Al Ghamdi

89'

A. Hazzazi← S. Alselouli

90+1'

Y. El Jebli← A. Damdam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Ettifaq

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots19

0Corners8

9Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots19

3On Target10

3Off Target6

1Blocked3

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box10

Passing

37%Possession63%

317Total Passes504

251Accurate Passes445

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

8Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0