Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Baten: Result & Stats

Al-Ettifaq

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Baten

W. Azarou 38'

Fábio Abreu 90+9' (pen)

1/14/2021

Pro League · Round 13Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al-Ettifaq50%

×Draw24%

Al Baten26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-EttifaqExpected goals in this matchAl Baten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.17

Al-Ettifaq

1.70

Al Baten

1.17

Al-Ettifaq creates 45% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 59 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al Baten

0.95

allows per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al Baten

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ettifaq ↓

Al Baten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Ettifaq or draw

74%

Al-Ettifaq or Al Baten

76%

Draw or Al Baten

50%

Winning margin

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+

27%

Al Baten wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals

82%

Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals

51%

Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals

24%

Al Baten 1+ goals

69%

Al Baten 2+ goals

33%

Al Baten 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)

65%

Al Baten (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ettifaq at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 125 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.40 + Al Baten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Al Baten attack 0.95 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Ettifaq scores more

50%

level

24%

Al Baten scores more

26%

Al-Ettifaq at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Zakaria Al Sudani

Al Baten · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

W. Azarou↳ Souza

46'

K. Hyland← Daifallah Al Qarni

46'

Rakan Al-Shamlan← Abdulmalek Al Shammary

60'

Filip Kiss

70'

Ibrahim Mahnashi← N. Sliti

71'

Hassan Sharahili← M. Rayhi

71'

Fahad Al-Shammeri← Y. El Jebli

83'

Ibrahim Mahnashi

84'

Saad Alselouli← S. Doukara

90'

Mohammed Al KuwaykibiGoal cancelled

90'

Renato ChavesGoal cancelled

90+8'

Hamed Al Ghamdi← Ibrahim Mahnashi

90+8'

Hazzaa Al Hazzaa← Ali Abdullah Hazzazi

90+10'

Abdulaziz Damdam← Fábio Abreu

90+9'

Fábio AbreuPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-EttifaqAl

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots8

5Corners5

11Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

7Off Target2

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

455Total Passes434

365Accurate Passes347

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2