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Al Diriyah vs Al Baten — Division 1 2018

Al Diriyah
Al Diriyah
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Baten
Al Baten
3/12/2026Division 1Division 1 · Round 25Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Diriyah63%
×Draw20%
Al Baten17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Diriyah
2.15
Al Baten
1.00

Al Diriyah creates 115% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Al Diriyah
2.72
Al Baten
1.11

allows per match

Al Diriyah
0.89
Al Baten
1.57

finishing

Al Diriyah+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diriyah ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al Diriyah or draw
83%
Al Diriyah or Al Baten
80%
Draw or Al Baten
37%

Winning margin

Al Diriyah wins by 2+
40%
Al Baten wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Diriyah 1+ goals
88%
Al Diriyah 2+ goals
63%
Al Diriyah 3+ goals
36%
Al Baten 1+ goals
63%
Al Baten 2+ goals
26%
Al Baten 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Diriyah (draw refunded)
79%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diriyah at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Al Baten away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diriyah attack 2.72 + Al Baten defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.15

Al Baten attack 1.11 + Al Diriyah defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Diriyah scores more
63%
level
20%
Al Baten scores more
17%

Al Diriyah at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Diriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Diriyah vs Al Baten

Al Diriyah beat Al Baten 4-1 in Division 1 on March 12, 2026.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.