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Al Baten vs Al Diriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Baten
Al Baten
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Diriyah
Al Diriyah
11/7/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 8Al-Batin Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Baten34%
×Draw24%
Al Diriyah42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Baten
1.38
Al Diriyah
1.57

Al Diriyah creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Baten
1.40
Al Diriyah
1.94

allows per match

Al Baten
1.20
Al Diriyah
1.35

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par
Al Diriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al Diriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw
58%
Al Baten or Al Diriyah
76%
Draw or Al Diriyah
66%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+
15%
Al Diriyah wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals
75%
Al Baten 2+ goals
40%
Al Baten 3+ goals
16%
Al Diriyah 1+ goals
79%
Al Diriyah 2+ goals
46%
Al Diriyah 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)
44%
Al Diriyah (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Al Diriyah away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.40 + Al Diriyah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Diriyah attack 1.94 + Al Baten defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Baten scores more
34%
level
24%
Al Diriyah scores more
42%

Al Diriyah at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Diriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Baten vs Al Diriyah

Al Diriyah beat Al Baten 2-1 in Division 1 on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Batin Club Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.