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Al Bukayriyah vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
11/27/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 11Al-Amal Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Bukayriyah45%
×Draw26%
Al Arabi SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Bukayriyah
1.46
Al Arabi SC
1.11

Al Bukayriyah creates 32% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.33
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.04
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bukayriyah ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Bukayriyah or draw
71%
Al Bukayriyah or Al Arabi SC
74%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
55%

Winning margin

Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
22%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
77%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
43%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
18%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
67%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
30%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
61%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bukayriyah at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 89 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.33 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Bukayriyah scores more
45%
level
26%
Al Arabi SC scores more
29%

Al Bukayriyah at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Bukayriyah 0–1 Al Arabi SC

Al Arabi SC beat Al Bukayriyah 1-0 in Division 1 on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Amal Club Stadium in Al Bukayriyah.