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Al Arabi SC vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
5/28/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Arabi SC41%
×Draw26%
Al Bukayriyah33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi SC
1.39
Al Bukayriyah
1.23

Al Arabi SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Arabi SC
1.51
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Arabi SC
1.44
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw
67%
Al Arabi SC or Al Bukayriyah
74%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
59%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
19%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
75%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
40%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
16%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
71%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
35%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
55%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more
41%
level
26%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
33%

Al Arabi SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi SC vs Al Bukayriyah

Al Arabi SC beat Al Bukayriyah 2-1 in Division 1 on May 28, 2024.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.