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Al Branes vs Al-Ansar — Premier League 2019

Al Branes
Al Branes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ansar
Al-Ansar
5/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Branes41%
×Draw28%
Al-Ansar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Branes
1.25
Al-Ansar
1.06

Al Branes creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al Branes
0.50
Al-Ansar
0.82

allows per match

Al Branes
1.30
Al-Ansar
2.00

finishing

Al Branes+0.00on par
Al-Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Branes ↓

Al-Ansar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Branes or draw
69%
Al Branes or Al-Ansar
72%
Draw or Al-Ansar
59%

Winning margin

Al Branes wins by 2+
18%
Al-Ansar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Branes 1+ goals
71%
Al Branes 2+ goals
36%
Al Branes 3+ goals
13%
Al-Ansar 1+ goals
65%
Al-Ansar 2+ goals
29%
Al-Ansar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Branes (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Ansar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Branes at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Al-Ansar away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Branes attack 0.50 + Al-Ansar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al-Ansar attack 0.82 + Al Branes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Branes scores more
41%
level
28%
Al-Ansar scores more
31%

Al Branes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Branes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Branes vs Al-Ansar

Al-Ansar beat Al Branes 2-1 in Premier League on May 29, 2025.