Al-Ansar 2–1 Al Branes: Result & Stats

Al-Ansar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Branes

5/10/2025

Premier League · Relegation Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al-Ansar61%

×Draw22%

Al Branes16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-AnsarExpected goals in this matchAl Branes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.81

Al-Ansar

1.83

Al Branes

0.81

Al-Ansar creates 126% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

0.90

0.73

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Al-Ansar

1.27

Al Branes

0.90

allows per match

Al-Ansar

0.73

Al Branes

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ansar+0.00on par

Al Branes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ansar ↓

Al Branes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al-Ansar or draw

84%

Al-Ansar or Al Branes

78%

Draw or Al Branes

39%

Winning margin

Al-Ansar wins by 2+

36%

Al Branes wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Ansar 1+ goals

84%

Al-Ansar 2+ goals

54%

Al-Ansar 3+ goals

28%

Al Branes 1+ goals

56%

Al Branes 2+ goals

19%

Al Branes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ansar (draw refunded)

79%

Al Branes (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ansar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Al Branes away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ansar attack 1.27 + Al Branes defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Branes attack 0.90 + Al-Ansar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al-Ansar scores more

61%

level

22%

Al Branes scores more

16%

Al-Ansar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff