Al Ahly vs El Dakhleya — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Al Ahly64%
El Dakhleya14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Ahly creates 153% more chances
Season form · 126 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Ahly ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Ahly at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.56 · 126 matches
El Dakhleya away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Ahly attack 2.13 + El Dakhleya defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82
El Dakhleya attack 0.88 + Al Ahly defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Al Ahly at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Al Ahly
Zamalek SC
AL Assiouty
AL Masry
El Mokawloon
Misr EL Makasa
Ismaily SC
El Geish
Enppi
Wadi Degla
Al Ittihad
Smouha SC
El Entag EL Harby
El Gouna FC
Haras El Hodood
PetrojetEl Dakhleya
Nogoom El Mostakbal FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Al Ahly host El Dakhleya on Thursday, 4 July 2024 at 16:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Al Ahly 4–1 El Dakhleya
Al Ahly beat El Dakhleya 4-1 in Premier League on July 4, 2024.
Goals: Wessam Abou Ali (35', 41' pen), Emam Ashour (59', 90+2'), Mahmoud Sayed okaa (90').
Al Ahly controlled possession (66%) and registered 31 shots to 3.
The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.