Al Ahly 3–1 El Dakhleya: Result & Stats

Al Ahly

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

El Dakhleya

2/20/2019

Premier League · Round 23Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Ahly64%

×Draw22%

El Dakhleya14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhlyExpected goals in this matchEl Dakhleya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.72

Al Ahly

1.82

El Dakhleya

0.72

Al Ahly creates 153% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 51 away

2.13

creates per match

0.88

0.56

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Al Ahly

2.13

El Dakhleya

0.88

allows per match

Al Ahly

0.56

El Dakhleya

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par

El Dakhleya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

El Dakhleya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw

86%

Al Ahly or El Dakhleya

78%

Draw or El Dakhleya

36%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+

37%

El Dakhleya wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals

84%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

54%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

27%

El Dakhleya 1+ goals

51%

El Dakhleya 2+ goals

16%

El Dakhleya 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

82%

El Dakhleya (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.56 · 126 matches

El Dakhleya away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.13 + El Dakhleya defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82

El Dakhleya attack 0.88 + Al Ahly defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Ahly scores more

64%

level

22%

El Dakhleya scores more

14%

Al Ahly at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff