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Al Ahly Shendi vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
FT
1 – 0
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
10/23/2017Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 28Shandi Stadium (Shendi (Shandi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi30%
×Draw31%
Al Ahli Wad Medani38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly Shendi
0.90
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.05

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.63
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.22

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.88
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.17

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw
62%
Al Ahly Shendi or Al Ahli Wad Medani
69%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
70%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
11%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
59%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
23%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
6%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
65%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
28%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
44%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.63 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.22 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more
30%
level
31%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
38%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahly Shendi 1–0 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Al Ahly Shendi beat Al Ahli Wad Medani 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 23, 2017.

The match was played at Shandi Stadium (Shendi (Shandi)).