Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Al Ahly Shendi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
FT
1 – 2
Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
7/23/2016Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 21Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani42%
×Draw29%
Al Ahly Shendi29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.23
Al Ahly Shendi
0.98

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.69
Al Ahly Shendi
0.89

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.07
Al Ahly Shendi
0.78

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par
Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Al Ahly Shendi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw
71%
Al Ahli Wad Medani or Al Ahly Shendi
71%
Draw or Al Ahly Shendi
58%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
18%
Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
35%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
13%
Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
62%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
26%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
59%
Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.69 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.89 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
42%
level
29%
Al Ahly Shendi scores more
29%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Wad Medani 1–2 Al Ahly Shendi

Al Ahly Shendi beat Al Ahli Wad Medani 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 23, 2016.

The match was played at Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani)).