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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al-Ahli Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
1 – 0
Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
10/4/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 31Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe63%
×Draw22%
Al-Ahli Atbara14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.80
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.72

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 150% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 18 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.94
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.50

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.93
Al-Ahli Atbara
2.67

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
86%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Al-Ahli Atbara
78%
Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara
37%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
37%
Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
83%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
54%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
27%
Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
51%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
16%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
81%
Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
63%
level
22%
Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
14%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al-Ahli Atbara

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Al-Ahli Atbara 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium in Umm Durmān.