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Al-Ahli Atbara vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
FT
1 – 2
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
11/10/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Atbara37%
×Draw27%
Al-Ahly Merowe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.24
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.13
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al-Ahli Atbara
1.73
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Atbara ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Atbara or draw
64%
Al-Ahli Atbara or Al-Ahly Merowe
73%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
63%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
71%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
35%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
13%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
70%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
34%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Atbara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 1.13 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
37%
level
27%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
36%

Al-Ahli Atbara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Ahli Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Atbara vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Al-Ahli Atbara 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.