Al Ahli Wad Medani 2–0 Al Ahli Khartoum

Al Ahli Wad Medani

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Khartoum

1/16/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 2Barber Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani52%

×Draw26%

Al Ahli Khartoum22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli Wad MedaniExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.89

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.52

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.89

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

1.05

0.72

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.83

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.05

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani

0.72

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw

78%

Al Ahli Wad Medani or Al Ahli Khartoum

74%

Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum

48%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+

27%

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals

78%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals

45%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

59%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

22%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)

70%

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.83 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.05 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more

52%

level

26%

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

22%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff